Jakarta (Indonesia Window) – Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in July 2021 is set at 72.17 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.94 dollars per barrel compared to 70.23 dollars per barrel in June 2021.
Executive Summary of the Indonesian Crude Oil Price Team has showed that the ICP SLC July 2021 also increased by 1.83 dollars per barrel, from 70.82 dollars per barrel to 72.65 dollars per barrel.
The report mentions several factors that influence the increase in the price of major crude oil in the international market, among others, related to oil demands.
OPEC’s publication in July 2021 reported an upward revision of the estimated demands for the third quarter of 2021 by 60,000 barrels per day to 98.19 million barrels per day compared to last month.
OPEC lowered its projection for production levels of non OPEC countries in 2021 by 30,000 barrels per day to 63.8 million barrels per day, compared to the previous month.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publication indicated that gasoline demands in the United States increased at the end of July 2021 compared to the end of June 2021, by 152,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels per day.
The EIA also reported a decrease in U.S. stockpiles at the end of July 2021 compared to the end of June 2021.
The EIA’s July 2021 report estimated that there would be a decline in world commercial crude oil stocks in the third quarter of 2021 by 16.7 million barrels to 435.6 million barrels and gasoline stocks by 7.4 million barrels to 234.2 million barrels. These figures are the largest in the last 10 years.
The increase in world crude oil prices during July 2021 was also due to the improvement in the U.S. economy as indicated by the estimated annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.4 percent in 2021, after a decline of 3.5 percent in 2020 (year-on-year/yoy).
In addition, there is an increase in world refinery throughput in June 2021 by 1.6 million barrels per day compared to May 2021, and was expected to increase in July and August 2021 with further additions of up to 2.7 million barrels per day.
For the Asia Pacific region, the increase in oil prices was also influenced by the real-time traffic index in several major Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, which increased in July 2021 compared to the previous month.
Japan’s largest refineries, Eneos, in Kashima, with a CDU (Crude Distillation Unit) capacity of 168,000 barrels per day and Sendai, with a CDU capacity of 145,000 barrels per day, will resume operations at the end of July 2021.
The development of the average price of major crude oil on the international market in July 2021 compared to June 2021 is as follows.
Dated Brent rises by 1.99 dollars per barrel from 73.04 dollars per barrel to 75.03 dollars per barrel.
WTI (Nymex) rises by 1.08 dollars per barrel from 71.35 dollars per barrel to 72.43 dollars per barrel.
OPEC basket rises by 1.64 dollars a barrel from 71.81 dollars a barrel to 73.46 dollars a barrel.
Brent (ICE) rises by 0.89 dollars per barrel from 73.41 dollars per barrel to 74.29 dollars per barrel.
Reporting by Indonesia Window