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Singapura (Xinhua/Indonesia Window) – Kawasan ASEAN Plus Tiga (ASEAN+3), yang terdiri dari negara-negara anggota ASEAN ditambah China, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan, diperkirakan akan membukukan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 4,1 persen pada 2026, demikian disampaikan Kantor Riset Ekonomi Makro ASEAN+3 (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office/AMRO) pada Senin (27/7).

Menurut pembaruan kuartalan AMRO mengenai prospek ekonomi regional, perkiraan tersebut sedikit lebih tinggi daripada perkiraan 4 persen pada Juni.

AMRO mengatakan dalam sebuah pernyataan bahwa membaiknya prospek tersebut didorong oleh momentum berkelanjutan di sektor teknologi, terutama permintaan yang kuat terhadap semikonduktor dan produk-produk terkait kecerdasan buatan (artificial intelligence/AI) lainnya, serta kondisi harga komoditas global yang lebih mendukung.

Konsumsi rumah tangga yang kuat, investasi yang tangguh, serta ekspor semikonduktor dan elektronik yang kuat diperkirakan akan tetap menjadi pendorong utama pertumbuhan, kata AMRO.

Aktivitas manufaktur terus berkembang karena gangguan pasokan energi dan input industri ternyata tidak separah perkiraan semula, tambahnya.

\"ASEAN+3 tetap tangguh, didukung oleh permintaan domestik yang kuat dan peran sentralnya dalam rantai pasokan AI global,\" kata Kepala Ekonom AMRO Dong He.

Dia mengatakan bahwa dampak konflik di Timur Tengah ternyata juga tidak separah perkiraan semula, meskipun biaya energi dan input yang tinggi terus menimbulkan risiko terhadap inflasi dan aktivitas industri.

Sementara itu, inflasi utama (headline inflation) diproyeksikan sebesar 1,6 persen pada 2026, turun dari perkiraan sebelumnya sebesar 1,8 persen, yang mencerminkan ekspektasi penurunan harga komoditas global.

Menurut AMRO, tekanan inflasi secara umum masih terkendali, dengan kenaikan harga terutama terkonsentrasi pada energi dan transportasi. Namun, AMRO memperingatkan bahwa inflasi pangan berpotensi meningkat seiring kenaikan biaya input dan kondisi cuaca buruk yang memengaruhi harga.

Laporan: Redaksi

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