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Singapura (Xinhua/Indonesia Window) – El Nino kemungkinan akan menimbulkan risiko inflasi yang lebih besar daripada guncangan pertumbuhan bagi perekonomian-perekonomian ASEAN, dengan kenaikan harga beras, gandum, jagung, dan minyak nabati yang diperkirakan menjadi faktor utama dampaknya, demikian disampaikan OCBC Group Research pada Rabu (9/9).

Lavanya Venkateswaran, ekonom senior ASEAN dan India, mengatakan dalam sebuah catatan bahwa menurutnya Filipina, Indonesia, dan Thailand termasuk di antara negara-negara ASEAN yang lebih rentan terhadap El Nino, sementara Malaysia dan Vietnam menghadapi risiko yang signifikan namun lebih terkonsentrasi.

Kenaikan harga pangan \"dapat menambah tekanan inflasi regional, dengan risiko inflasi impor yang juga meningkat mengingat mayoritas negara di kawasan ini merupakan pengimpor bersih pangan,\" ujarnya.

Dia menyebutkan bahwa selain Thailand dan Vietnam, negara-negara dengan perekonomian besar di kawasan ini pada umumnya merupakan importir bersih beras, sehingga Filipina, Malaysia, dan Indonesia rentan terhadap potensi guncangan nilai tukar perdagangan (terms-of-trade) akibat kenaikan harga beras.

Dia menambahkan bahwa mayoritas perekonomian di kawasan ini merupakan importir bersih biji-bijian dalam skala besar, termasuk ASEAN-6, dan sangat rentan terhadap tekanan inflasi yang berasal dari luar negeri ketika harga gandum dan jagung global meningkat.

Selain itu, dia menuturkan bahwa transmisi inflasi pangan akan bervariasi, bergantung pada bobot pangan dalam keranjang harga konsumen, tingkat ketergantungan impor, serta intervensi pemerintah melalui langkah-langkah seperti subsidi dan pengendalian harga.

Dampak terhadap pertumbuhan diperkirakan akan lebih tidak merata dan sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di sektor pertanian.

Indonesia, Filipina, Thailand, dan Vietnam, yang memiliki sektor pertanian relatif besar, menjadi lebih rentan terhadap penurunan produksi dan melemahnya pendapatan di pedesaan.

Kendati demikian, dia berpendapat bahwa negara-negara pengekspor hasil pertanian seperti Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, dan Vietnam dapat mengimbangi sebagian dampak melalui peningkatan pendapatan ekspor komoditas.

\"Dampak makroekonomi akhirnya tidak hanya akan bergantung pada kondisi cuaca, tetapi juga pada langkah-langkah kebijakan, termasuk pembatasan perdagangan pangan, pelepasan stok, dan langkah-langkah subsidi,\" imbuhnya.

Laporan: Redaksi

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